
Join us on Discord
Discord is a third-party platform
Learn MoreBest NBA Prop Picks




Best MLB Prop Picks




Best NHL Prop Picks




6 Expert Picks
The Angels' Yusei Kikuchi has really struggled on the road. ...
Connor Hellebuyck is massively struggling on the road. ...
The Nationals are in a major slump. ...
Sticking with what we did in Game 3 ...
How would you define a snail's pace? ...
Why would we want to cut the game in half? ...
Past Picks
FanDuel. Evan Mobley came back after missing Game 2 with an injury to record 18 points and 13 rebounds in Game 3 (35 minutes). It marks the fourth time in four games he’s cleared 27.5 points plus rebounds against the Pacers this season. It’s a plus matchup for Mobley against the smaller Pascal Siakam, and I anticipate Cleveland needing to lean on Mobley more with Darius Garland clearly not 100% healthy. In fact, against teams outside the top 12 in restricted area defense this season (Pacers were 20th), Mobley cleared this line in 31 of 47 games.
Coming off a horrific performance, look for Tyrese Haliburton to bounce back, especially as a distributor. He averaged 11 assists per game post-All Star Break. Haliburton cleared this prop total in his first six playoff games this season before falling short in the last two. I like that we have a healthy total of 230.5.
Of the remaining teams in the postseason, the predictability of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been the strongest. They swept the Miami Heat, and if they were healthy perhaps they would be going for another sweep today. Road success in their three postseason wins has been by a minimum twenty points, and an average margin of victory of 38 points. Not as lopsided here in game four, but their surge offensively continues to push them past the number.
Darius Garland saw his first action in over two weeks in game three’s victory for the Cleveland Cavaliers. As expected he did not shoot the ball well at twenty seven percent, but I expect a rise from him in game two. With Donovan Mitchell’s strong play, Indiana is going to have to over compensate to a degree defensively. Garland gets past his points prop here in game four at Indiana.
Seven miserable minutes of the second quarter did in the Pacers in Game Three, when a 24-7 Cavs run into halftime that blew open a close game. As it was, Indiana still hinted at making a run into the 4th Q before Cleveland repelled the threat. The Pacers still hold the upper hand 5-2 this season over Cleveland, and Gs Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, who had been combining for roughly 36 ppg in the postseason, aren't likely to be held to 14 points again as on Friday (Halliburton scoring only 4). Donovan Mitchell is doing yeoman's work for Cleveland with 91 points across the past two games, but it's expecting a bit much of him to continue at that pace, no? Play Pacers
This series is at the vanguard of the NBA over trend in the playoffs, landing that way in each of the first three games. Which can happen when both teams want to play fast. Indiana's problem in Game Three on Friday was not related to the pace as it was its inaccuracy and not getting the usual production from contributors such as Tyrese Haliburton, the star of Games 1 & 2 but hardly as much on Friday when only scoring 4s. The Pacers had scored 117 or more in six of seven previous postseason games. Nothing wrong with Cleveland's offense in the playoffs, either, scoring 123 ppg in its previous seven games in this postseason. Note playoff overs on a 21-9 run. Play Cavs-Pacers Over
I like this spot for Tyrese Haliburton to bounce back at home after a subpar Game 3 performance. Haliburton has performed better at home this season versus on the road and has fairly drastic home/road splits. We’re also working with a high total in a game that should be competitive. Look for Haliburton to more aggressive against a desperate Cleveland team.
Our model projects Pascal Siakam for 20 points in this buy-low spot. He has not scored 20+ in his last five games. He comes in 12-7 under this number recently, but despite that he is still 54-32 (62.8%) over 17.5 points this season and 6-1 over against Cleveland before this playoff series. Although the Pacers were blown out, Siakam managed 18 points in just 28 minutes in Game 3, which could translate to a better offensive start in Game 4. His backups have either struggled with their shooting or have not been playing, making Siakam a likely candidate for 35+ minutes. He has scored 18 or more points in 28 of 40 games (70%) when playing at least 34 minutes this season.
Our simulations indicate a 65% chance of the game coming in under 231.5 points, as both teams are projected to shoot under 37% combined. Cleveland has struggled from three-point range, shooting under 30% in the first three games of the series. Indiana's three-point shooting has also declined, from 53% in Game 1 to 39% in Game 2, and just 30% in Game 3. The growing familiarity and rivalry between these teams should lead to more defensive stops. The factors that led to overs in the previous games, such as Indiana's hot 53% 3pt shooting in Game 1 and the absence of key defenders, DPOY Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter in Game 2, are not present for Game 4.